Maria da Fontevs
Bragança
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bragança · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maria da Fonte 1-2 Bragança
Original prediction
Bragança
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.2% | 23.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.0% | 26.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.8% | 49.2% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Bragança
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Bragança has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00