Marekvs
Rilski Sportist
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marek · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Marek 0-0 Rilski Sportist, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Marek 1-3 Rilski Sportist
Original prediction
Marek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.4% | 39.3% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 29.8% | 31.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 25.8% | 28.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Projected Score
Marek 0–0 Rilski Sportist
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Marek
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Marek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarekWLWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Rilski SportistWLWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarekRilski Sportist
37.0Attack37.0
66.7Defence66.7
48.1Form44.4
51.7Power51.7
0.84xG0.71