Marekvs
Cherno More Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Cup · 10/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marek 0-3 Cherno More Varna
Original prediction
Marek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.09 | 12.8% | 37.9% | 25.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.4% | 24.6% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 66.8% | 37.5% | -29.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Marek
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Marek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarekWWDLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Cherno More VarnaLLWDD
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MarekCherno More Varna
100.0Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
97.0Power50.0
2.28xG1.33