Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mardin BB · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mardin 1969 are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Van BB are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Van BB hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 49.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.6% in the 1. Lig, while Mardin 1969 holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mardin BB
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
14.6%
Mardin BB has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60