Mardin 1969vs
Kayserispor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kayserispor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mardin 1969 0-1 Kayserispor
Original prediction
Kayserispor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.6% | 31.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.2% | 28.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.2% | 39.6% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Kayserispor
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Kayserispor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60