Mardin 1969vs
Fatih Karagümrük
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/15/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mardin 1969 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mardin 1969 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mardin 1969 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük
Original prediction
Mardin 1969
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.8% | 41.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.6% | 30.3% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.6% | 28.6% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Projected Score
Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Mardin 1969
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Mardin 1969 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60