Marcílio Diasvs
Joinville
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 8/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marcílio Dias · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marcílio Dias 4-2 Joinville
Original prediction
Marcílio Dias
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.3% | 47.6% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 24.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 17.8% | 28.4% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Marcílio Dias
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Marcílio Dias has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00