Marcílio Diasvs
Hercílio Luz
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hercílio Luz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marcílio Dias 4-2 Hercílio Luz
Original prediction
Hercílio Luz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.3% | 35.6% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.8% | 28.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.0% | 35.9% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Hercílio Luz
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Hercílio Luz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80