Marcílio Diasvs
Figueirense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 10/16/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marcílio Dias · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marcílio Dias 2-2 Figueirense
Original prediction
Marcílio Dias
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 33.7% | 40.6% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.5% | 26.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 36.8% | 32.8% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Marcílio Dias
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Marcílio Dias has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40