Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Marbella are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Manchego are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 6 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Marbella hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (55.8 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/1.00