Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estepona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marbella 0-0 Estepona
Original prediction
Estepona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.1% | 31.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.3% | 26.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.6% | 42.1% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Estepona
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Estepona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarbellaLLDWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EsteponaWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MarbellaEstepona
33.3Attack66.7
50.0Defence40.0
27.8Form60.0
38.2Power56.8
1.17xG1.52