Marbellavs
Atlético Central
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marbella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Marbella 0-0 Atlético Central, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Marbella 4-1 Atlético Central
Original prediction
Marbella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.1% | 43.0% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.0% | 30.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 21.9% | 27.0% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Projected Score
Marbella 0–0 Atlético Central
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Marbella
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Marbella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.75