Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Mantova are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Triestina are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold a 10.7-point power-rating edge (68.8 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40