Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Mantova are 2W-2D-0L in their last 4 (WDDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.75 conceded, while Pro Sesto are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold a 27.3-point power-rating edge (68.8 v 41.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.6% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
64.6%
Model confidence
64.6%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.75
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20