Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mantova 0-2 Palermo
Original prediction
Mantova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.9% | 38.9% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.9% | 25.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 43.2% | 35.7% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MantovaWDWDL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PalermoWWDWW
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
MantovaPalermo
72.2Attack77.8
66.7Defence61.1
77.8Form88.9
74.0Power78.9
1.63xG1.38