Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Mantova are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (DW), averaging 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Padova are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (68.8 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 2.50/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40