Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Mantova are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Novara are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (68.8 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.7% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
67.7%
Model confidence
67.7%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00