Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Mantova are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lumezzane are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (68.8 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.5% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80