Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Manta FC are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Libertad are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Libertad hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (35.4 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.9% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
24.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40