Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Manta FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Emelec are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (35.4 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 30.5% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
30.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20