Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Manta FC 0-0 Aucas, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Manta FC 0-0 Aucas
Original prediction
Aucas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 26.0% | 19.1% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.3% | 30.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.7% | 50.7% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Projected Score
Manta FC 0–0 Aucas
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Manta FCLLWLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AucasDDWLW
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
Manta FCAucas
19.5Attack37.9
51.7Defence67.8
23.0Form56.3
34.2Power56.0
0.48xG1.07