Mansfield Townvs
Oxford United
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mansfield Town 1-1 Oxford United
Original prediction
Oxford United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.2% | 31.2% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.7% | 26.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 32.0% | 42.2% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Oxford United
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Oxford United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80