Mansfield Townvs
Luton
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 8/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mansfield Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mansfield Town 5-2 Luton
Original prediction
Mansfield Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.7% | 37.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.3% | 26.6% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 40.0% | 36.1% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mansfield Town
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Mansfield Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60