Manresavs
Peña Sport
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manresa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manresa 2-0 Peña Sport
Original prediction
Manresa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.7% | 45.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.7% | 27.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 26.6% | 27.4% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Manresa
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Manresa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.67/1.00