Manresavs
Osasuna II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manresa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manresa 0-0 Osasuna II
Original prediction
Manresa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.6% | 37.1% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.6% | 28.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.8% | 34.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.14 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Manresa
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Manresa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80