Manisa F.K.vs
Muğlaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manisa F.K. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manisa F.K. 3-4 Muğlaspor
Original prediction
Manisa F.K.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.2% | 43.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 27.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.2% | 29.3% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Manisa F.K.
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Manisa F.K. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80