Manisa F.K.vs
Esenler Erokspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manisa F.K. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manisa F.K. 1-1 Esenler Erokspor
Original prediction
Manisa F.K.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.5% | 36.4% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 29.7% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.2% | 33.9% | -12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Manisa F.K.
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Manisa F.K. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40