Manisa F.K.vs
Bursaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bursaspor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manisa F.K. 1-2 Bursaspor
Original prediction
Bursaspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.20 | 21.7% | 28.2% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.5% | 25.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 53.8% | 46.5% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Bursaspor
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Bursaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Manisa F.K.LDDWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BursasporWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Manisa F.K.Bursaspor
66.7Attack66.7
46.7Defence80.0
53.3Form80.0
56.4Power75.4
1.25xG1.65