Manila Diggervs
Shan United
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Challenge League · 10/24/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manila Digger · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manila Digger 4-0 Shan United
Original prediction
Manila Digger
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.0% | 44.4% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.8% | 27.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 20.2% | 27.8% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Manila Digger
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Manila Digger has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80