Manchester United Wvs
Manchester City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/25/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United W 1-1 Manchester City W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.07 | 17.9% | 22.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.2% | 22.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.9% | 55.0% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40