Manchester United Wvs
Liverpool W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/3/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United W 1-0 Liverpool W
Original prediction
Liverpool W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.9% | 30.1% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.5% | 23.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.5% | 46.1% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool W
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Liverpool W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 9 · avg 3.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00