Manchester United Wvs
Chelsea W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United W 0-5 Chelsea W
Original prediction
Chelsea W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.99 | 18.4% | 31.1% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.0% | 26.5% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 58.7% | 42.4% | -16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea W
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Chelsea W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80