GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 3/13/2025, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Manchester United are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Real Sociedad are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester United hold a 12.9-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 57.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Manchester United holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Manchester United

Probability

57.4%

Model confidence

57.4%

Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Manchester UnitedDDWDL

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Real SociedadLDLWW

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Manchester UnitedReal Sociedad
77.8Attack61.1
57.8Defence52.8
71.1Form55.6
69.9Power57.0
2.46xG1.36
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