GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 4/17/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Manchester United are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lyon are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester United hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 65.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Manchester United holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Manchester United

Probability

45.0%

Model confidence

45.0%

Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Manchester UnitedLDDLW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LyonWDWLW

GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Manchester UnitedLyon
77.8Attack80.6
57.8Defence55.6
71.1Form61.1
69.9Power65.3
2.27xG1.83
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