GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 5/8/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Manchester United are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Athletic Club are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester United hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 58.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Manchester United holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Manchester United

Probability

54.5%

Model confidence

54.5%

Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Manchester UnitedLWDLW

GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Athletic ClubDLWLW

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Manchester UnitedAthletic Club
77.8Attack52.4
57.8Defence59.5
71.1Form61.9
69.9Power58.7
2.09xG1.18
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