Manchester City Wvs
Liverpool W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City W 4-2 Liverpool W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.6% | 49.1% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 17.9% | 24.2% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 7.92 | 11.5% | 26.6% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20