Manchester City Wvs
Brighton W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/18/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City W 3-2 Brighton W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.9% | 60.9% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.44 | 16.8% | 20.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 7.45 | 12.3% | 18.9% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00