Manchester City Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/6/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City W 3-1 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 88.7% | 65.5% | -23.2 pts |
| Draw | 11.82 | 7.8% | 18.8% | 11.0 pts |
| Away | 26.77 | 3.5% | 15.6% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
65.5%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80