Manchester City Wvs
Arsenal W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/4/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City W 4-2 Arsenal W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.1% | 50.2% | 11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.0% | 24.7% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80