GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Super Cup · 8/16/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Manchester City are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sevilla are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.3 against 45.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.1% in the UEFA Super Cup, while Manchester City holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Manchester City

Probability

37.1%

Model confidence

37.1%

Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Manchester CityWDLLW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SevillaLDWDL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Manchester CitySevilla
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.40xG1.19
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