Manchester Cityvs
Paris Saint Germain
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 46.8% | 40.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 23.8% | 26.5% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 29.4% | 32.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00