Manchester Cityvs
AEK Athens FC
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FC
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 85.4% | 47.5% | -37.9 pts |
| Draw | 10.03 | 9.6% | 22.6% | 13.0 pts |
| Away | 19.19 | 5.0% | 29.9% | 24.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-37.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 9 · avg 3.60/1.80
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20