Manchester City U21vs
Stoke City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City U21 4-3 Stoke City U21
Original prediction
Manchester City U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.5% | 50.9% | -26.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.44 | 14.1% | 21.7% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 10.74 | 8.4% | 27.4% | 19.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City U21
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Manchester City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40