Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Manchego are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Estepona are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Estepona hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 52.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.50/2.00
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00