Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Riffa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manama 1-5 Al Riffa
Original prediction
Al Riffa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.69 | 13.6% | 27.9% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.6% | 26.8% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 64.8% | 45.3% | -19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Al Riffa
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Al Riffa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ManamaDLWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al RiffaWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ManamaAl Riffa
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.20xG1.43