Managuavs
San Marcos
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/15/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Managua · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Managua 2-0 San Marcos, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Managua 3-2 San Marcos
Original prediction
Managua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 79.6% | 84.4% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.98 | 13.1% | 11.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 12.47 | 7.3% | 4.5% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Managua 2–0 San Marcos
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Managua
Probability
84.4%
Model confidence
84.4%
Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ManaguaWWDWD
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
San MarcosLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ManaguaSan Marcos
100.0Attack30.3
69.7Defence51.5
87.9Form33.3
84.2Power40.9
2.80xG0.44