Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Managua · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Managua 4-0 Matagalpa, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Managua 4-1 Matagalpa
Original prediction
Managua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 14:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 80.0% | 91.3% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.84 | 13.4% | 6.3% | -7.1 pts |
| Away | 13.89 | 6.6% | 2.4% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Projected Score
Managua 4–0 Matagalpa
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Managua
Probability
91.3%
Model confidence
91.3%
Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ManaguaWWWDW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MatagalpaLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ManaguaMatagalpa
100.0Attack18.2
66.7Defence24.2
88.9Form27.3
83.9Power27.9
4.47xG0.42