Mamelodi Sundownsvs
Siwelele
COMPLETEDSouth-Africa · Premier Soccer League · 9/9/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mamelodi Sundowns · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Siwelele
Original prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 74.6% | 66.0% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.7% | 20.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 11.81 | 7.7% | 13.6% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Mamelodi Sundowns
Probability
66.0%
Model confidence
66.0%
Mamelodi Sundowns has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80