Mamelodi Sundownsvs
Marumo Gallants
COMPLETEDSouth-Africa · League Cup · 10/27/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mamelodi Sundowns · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Marumo Gallants
Original prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 October 2026 at 05:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.5% | 46.0% | -25.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.6% | 27.1% | 8.4 pts |
| Away | 9.19 | 9.9% | 27.0% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Mamelodi Sundowns
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Mamelodi Sundowns has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00