Mamelodi Sundownsvs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
COMPLETEDWorld · FIFA Intercontinental Cup · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mamelodi Sundowns · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Original prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 29.7% | 40.7% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.7% | 26.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.5% | 32.6% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Mamelodi Sundowns
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Mamelodi Sundowns has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60